Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, has adjusted his 2026 price forecast for XRP (CRYPTO: XRP), lowering it from a previous estimate of $8 to $2.80. This revised outlook, attributed to prevailing macroeconomic headwinds, still suggests a potential upside of over 100% from XRP’s current trading price of $1.35. However, some analysts remain skeptical, with one predicting a potential decline to $1 by the end of the year.
XRP’s Role as a Bridge Currency Under Scrutiny
XRP is the native digital asset of the XRP Ledger, a blockchain designed to facilitate faster and more cost-effective cross-border transactions compared to traditional systems like the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT). SWIFT, the dominant network for international wire transfers, often incurs high fees due to its multi-bank routing and can take several days to settle payments. The XRP Ledger, in contrast, promises near-instantaneous transactions with negligible fees.
Fintech company Ripple leverages XRP through its enterprise payment platform, Ripple Payments ODL (On-Demand Liquidity). This service converts fiat currency to XRP, transfers it across the blockchain, and then reconverts it to fiat at the destination. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has previously projected XRP capturing 14% of the SWIFT market share by 2030, which would translate to approximately $21 trillion in annual transaction volume. Such a scenario could significantly boost demand for XRP.
Despite these potential benefits, recent data indicates that XRP transaction volume has remained relatively static over the past year. This suggests a lack of widespread adoption by businesses as a bridge currency. Critics argue that using a volatile cryptocurrency for payments is less appealing than utilizing stablecoins. Ripple’s introduction of its own stablecoin, Ripple USD (RLUSD), into its payment ecosystem has not yet demonstrably impacted XRP’s adoption, as XRP is still required for transaction fees on the XRP Ledger. Furthermore, RLUSD faces stiff competition from more established stablecoins like USDT and USDC.
Spot XRP ETFs Fail to Ignite Investor Interest
The introduction of spot XRP Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) was anticipated as a significant catalyst for the cryptocurrency. These ETFs offer investors a more accessible entry point by simplifying the process of acquiring XRP, bypassing the complexities and fees associated with direct cryptocurrency exchanges. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved six spot ETFs that exclusively hold XRP.
However, since their launch late last year, these ETFs have reportedly failed to significantly influence XRP’s price. In fact, XRP has experienced a 42% decline year-to-date in 2026, even with the availability of these regulated investment vehicles. Data indicates a consistent downward trend in daily net inflows into spot XRP ETFs, with assets under management (AUM) currently standing at $1 billion. This represents approximately 1.2% of XRP’s total market capitalization of $81 billion.
In comparison, Bitcoin, despite a 23% year-to-date decline, has seen its spot ETFs amass around $95 billion in AUM, accounting for 6.4% of its $1.4 trillion market value. The relatively low AUM for XRP ETFs as a percentage of its market cap is interpreted by some as an indicator of weak institutional interest, particularly when contrasted with Bitcoin’s performance.
Limited Catalysts for Price Appreciation
The current market assessment suggests that XRP faces challenges in establishing itself as a primary bridge currency, especially with the increasing viability of stablecoins. The underwhelming performance of spot XRP ETFs further points to a lack of substantial catalysts for significant price appreciation in the near term. These factors lead some analysts to believe that XRP’s price may face downward pressure, with a potential to reach $1 before the close of 2026.
While Standard Chartered’s Kendrick maintains a bullish outlook for XRP, forecasting $2.80 by 2026, the prevailing sentiment among some market observers leans towards caution. The cryptocurrency’s ability to overcome its current adoption hurdles and the competitive landscape will be critical in determining its future price trajectory.
