Morgan Stanley has projected an astonishing $3.4 trillion in revenue and $2.7 trillion in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) for SpaceX by 2040, a forecast that has quickly become a focal point of discussion among top investors. This ambitious outlook, shared with select investors last Thursday and reported by The Wall Street Journal, underscores the immense potential analysts see in the rocket maker, yet simultaneously highlights the inherent challenges and often ‘laughable’ nature of long-range financial predictions.
The Astronomical Projections for SpaceX
According to people familiar with the matter, Morgan Stanley’s analysis, as detailed by Corrie Driebusch in the WSJ on June 5, 2026, posits that SpaceX’s financial trajectory could reach unprecedented heights within the next decade and a half. The firm reportedly told investors that the company’s revenue could hit $3.4 trillion, with EBITDA potentially exceeding $2.7 trillion, by the year 2040. These figures represent an extraordinary leap for any enterprise, particularly one operating in the nascent and rapidly evolving space industry, and are presented as ‘Exhibit A’ in the ongoing debate over long-term financial forecasting.
The Folly of Forecasting: A Wall Street Tradition
The source article criticizes Wall Street’s ‘all too regular forecasting game’ as ‘dumb’ and ‘silly.’ It points out that predicting ‘revenues and profits of any company is tough enough,’ becoming ‘even more difficult for any company with only a few years of history.’ The author finds it ‘hilarious that anyone imagines they forecast revenues and/or profits a decade and a half into the future,’ especially figures as colossal as $3.4 trillion. This skepticism is rooted in the unpredictable nature of global events and market dynamics, which render such distant predictions highly speculative.
A Look Back: The Unforeseeable Past
To underscore the profound difficulty of such long-range predictions, the source prompts a reflection on 2012’s outlook for 2026. It asks whether anyone anticipated the rise of Artificial Intelligence, Intel’s rally post-government stake, Korea’s 4X growth, the GameStop/meme-stock short squeeze, the Silicon Valley Bank run, 500 basis point rate hikes in 2022, the pandemic, the surge of EVs, the invasion of Ukraine, either Trump election, January 6, or October 7, or even a treatment/cure for Pancreatic Cancer. These examples serve to illustrate that the world is ‘composed of countless co-variables,’ with ‘secondary effects and unforeseen consequences that are even more impossible to forecast.’
Exponential Uncertainty and IPO Confidence
The further out one attempts to forecast, ‘the number of possible outcomes increases exponentially,’ making predictions ‘utterly laughable’ for a 10-15 year horizon. While acknowledging that analysts’ jobs are inherently challenging, with some reportedly ‘terrified about being replaced by Claude,’ the source suggests that ‘tomfoolery like this does not give one confidence in this IPO process.’ The immense projected figures, while exciting, are presented as a stark reminder of the speculative nature of such long-term financial models in a world defined by constant, unpredictable change.
Ultimately, the Morgan Stanley forecast for SpaceX, while indicative of the company’s perceived potential, serves as a potent illustration of the speculative extremes inherent in long-term financial modeling. It highlights the chasm between ambitious projections and the chaotic reality of market forces and geopolitical shifts, urging investors to approach such distant predictions with a healthy dose of skepticism, particularly as a company like SpaceX potentially moves closer to a public offering.
