Soybean futures are experiencing a broad-based decline on Friday, with most contracts shedding between 7 and 10 cents. The national average Cash Bean price, as tracked by cmdtyView, is down 9 1/2 cents, settling at $10.60 1/2. This weakness extends to related products, with Soymeal futures showing losses of $3.50 to $4.60 in the front months, and Soy Oil futures trading 230 to 253 points lower.
Broader Market Influences and Export Data
The downward pressure on soybeans appears to be amplified by a wider decline in commodity markets, notably crude oil, which has fallen $3.01. This suggests a general risk-off sentiment or a confluence of bearish factors affecting multiple commodities simultaneously.
On the export front, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported a private export sale of 190,000 metric tons (MT) of soybean meal to the Philippines for the 2025/26 marketing year. While this represents new business, it may not be enough to offset broader market concerns or a slowdown in overall export pace.
Export Sales Lagging Year-Ago Pace
Recent export sales data from Thursday morning reveals a concerning trend for old crop sales. The total commitment for old crop soybeans stands at 39.948 million metric tons (MMT), an 18% decline compared to the same period a year ago. This figure represents 96% of the USDA’s estimated total for the marketing year, which lags behind the typical 99% average sale pace seen by this point.
Shipments are also falling short of expectations. Current shipments total 35.58 MMT, accounting for 85% of the USDA’s target. This pace is behind the 90% average, indicating a potential slowdown in the movement of U.S. soybeans to international buyers.
International Market Developments
Developments in key soybean-producing and exporting nations are also contributing to the market’s dynamics. Brazil’s soybean exports reached 14.825 MMT in May, a slight increase from the 14.099 MMT exported in the same month last year, according to data from its trade ministry. This suggests continued strong export performance from South America.
In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates that 91.7% of the soybean crop has been harvested. The overall crop estimate remains unchanged at 50.1 MMT. While this indicates a nearing completion of the harvest, the total volume is a significant factor for global supply expectations.
Weather Forecast and Price Movements
The NOAA 7-day forecast indicates minimal precipitation in key growing regions, with expected losses of 1-2 cents in parts of Iowa through Indiana and Missouri. Spottier totals are anticipated in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio. While not a major driver of current weakness, the lack of significant weather events that could boost demand or disrupt supply keeps the focus on existing market fundamentals.
Specific contract price movements on Friday illustrate the day’s trend:
- July 2026 Soybeans are trading at $11.19 1/2, down 10 cents.
- Nearby Cash Soybeans are at $10.60 1/2, down 9 1/2 cents.
- August 2026 Soybeans are at $11.23 3/4, down 8 3/4 cents.
- November 2026 Soybeans are at $11.34, down 7 1/2 cents.
- New Crop Cash Soybeans are at $10.68 1/4, down 7 3/4 cents.
The combined effect of sluggish export pace, broader commodity market pressure, and steady South American supply continues to weigh on soybean prices as the trading week concludes.
