Corn futures on Wednesday saw a reversal from earlier highs, with the benchmark July contract closing down by half a cent. While the July contract settled at $4.19, other corn futures experienced fractional to 2 1/4 cent gains, indicating a mixed but largely contained trading session.
Ethanol Production Holds Steady, Stocks Decline
The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly update provided a snapshot of the ethanol market. For the week of June 5, ethanol production averaged 1.108 million barrels per day, a figure that remained unchanged from the previous week. This stability in production was accompanied by a decrease in ethanol stocks, which fell by 154,000 barrels to a total of 24.452 million barrels.
On the export front, ethanol shipments saw an increase, rising by 20,000 barrels per day to reach 155,000 barrels per day. Concurrently, refiner inputs of ethanol also edged higher, up by 8,000 barrels per day to 907,000 barrels per day. These figures suggest a steady demand for ethanol, both domestically and internationally, despite the slight drawdown in inventory.
Market Focus Shifts to Export Sales and WASDE Report
Looking ahead, market participants are keenly awaiting Thursday morning’s Export Sales data. Analysts are forecasting old crop business to fall within the range of 0.7 to 1.6 million metric tons (MMT) for the week ending on June 4. New crop sales are expected to be in a narrower band, between 200,000 and 500,000 metric tons (MT).
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, also due on Thursday, is another significant event on the horizon. A Bloomberg survey of traders indicates expectations for a 6 million bushel (mbu) reduction in old crop U.S. corn carryout, bringing the projected total to 2.136 billion bushels (bbu). For the new crop, traders anticipate a 10 mbu reduction, potentially bringing the carryout to 1.947 billion bushels.
South American Production Estimates
International production figures are also a key consideration. Average estimates suggest an increase in Brazil’s corn production to 135.8 MMT, an upward revision of 0.8 MMT. Argentina’s corn output is also projected to rise, with estimates pointing to 60.8 MMT, an increase of 1.8 MMT. These upward revisions from South America could influence global supply dynamics.
Further details on Brazilian production are expected with the release of updated numbers from CONAB on Thursday morning. These reports, collectively, will provide crucial insights into the global corn balance sheet and are likely to shape market sentiment in the coming days.
Cash Corn Price Remains Stable
In the physical market, the CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price remained steady at $3.86 1/4. The nearby cash price mirrored this stability, also closing at $3.86 1/4. New crop cash corn saw a modest increase, trading up by half a cent to $4.01.
The day’s trading saw the July ’26 Corn contract close at $4.19, down 1/2 cent. The September ’26 Corn contract finished at $4.27 3/4, a gain of 1/4 cent. The December ’26 Corn contract closed at $4.46 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents. These movements reflect the nuanced trading activity as the market digests incoming data and anticipates future reports.
