Corn futures experienced significant upward momentum on Friday, with prices rising 6 to 8 cents across contracts, following the release of what analysts described as “friendlier than expected” data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). The CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price also reflected this bullish sentiment, increasing by 6 cents to settle at $4.06 3/4. This rally was primarily fueled by the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which detailed notable reductions in both domestic and global corn stock projections.
Domestic Supply Tightens on Increased Demand
The USDA’s WASDE report for July 11, 2026, revealed a substantial tightening of U.S. corn stocks for the 2025/26 marketing year. Projections for U.S. corn stocks were revised down by 125 million bushels (mbu) from the previous month, now standing at 2.02 billion bushels (bbu). This reduction was largely attributed to a significant 150 mbu increase in the forecast for feed and residual use, indicating stronger domestic demand from the livestock sector. Additionally, the report noted a 25 mbu cut to ethanol production, suggesting a rebalancing of demand across different industrial uses.
Further underscoring the tighter domestic supply outlook, new crop carryout figures saw a larger-than-anticipated decline. The USDA projected new crop carryout to drop by 170 mbu, settling at 1.790 bbu. This substantial revision was a consequence of both the lower old crop carryover and a 50 mbu increase in export expectations, signaling robust international demand for U.S. corn. Overnight, 12 deliveries were issued against July contracts, further reflecting market activity in response to the updated supply figures.
Global Inventories Trimmed Amid Regional Shifts
The bullish sentiment extended beyond U.S. borders, as the WASDE report also indicated a reduction in global corn stocks. World corn stocks were trimmed by 5.96 million metric tons (MMT), bringing the total projection to 275.26 MMT. This global adjustment was primarily driven by the aforementioned U.S. stock cut, alongside a 1 MMT drop for China, attributed to a smaller old crop number in the Asian powerhouse.
Regional production forecasts also contributed to the global rebalancing. European Union (EU) production was notably revised downwards by 3.72 MMT, now estimated at 53.78 MMT. This figure was corroborated by independent assessments, with Coceral trimming their combined EU and UK corn production number even further, by 4.5 MMT to 52.7 MMT. Conversely, Argentina’s 2025/26 output saw an upward revision, increasing by 2 MMT to a projected 63 MMT, providing a partial offset to reductions elsewhere.
Futures Market Reacts with Broad Gains
The immediate market response to the USDA’s data was evident across various corn futures contracts. As of Friday, July 11, 2026, the July 26 Corn contract traded at $4.34 1/2, up 6 3/4 cents. The Nearby Cash price saw a 6-cent increase, reaching $4.07 3/4. September 26 Corn futures climbed by 6 1/4 cents to $4.37 3/4, while the December 26 Corn contract posted the largest gain, rising 7 1/2 cents to $4.59 1/2. New Crop Cash prices also moved higher, up 6 1/2 cents to $4.10 1/2.
These widespread gains across the corn complex underscore the market’s positive interpretation of the USDA’s latest supply and demand figures. The revisions, particularly the tighter U.S. and global stock estimates, have provided a clear bullish signal, prompting traders to bid up prices in anticipation of a more constrained supply environment. The report, authored by Austin Schroeder for Barchart, highlights the significant impact of governmental agricultural assessments on commodity market valuations.
