Soybean markets experienced notable downward pressure on Tuesday, August 4, 2026, with contracts for nearby delivery falling by as much as 15 cents, while some deferred contracts remained steady. This market movement was primarily influenced by a combination of factors, including a wetter weather forecast across key growing regions, broader weakness in related agricultural products, and a significant decline in crude oil prices. The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price reflected this trend, recording a decrease of 13 3/4 cents to settle at $11.34 1/2.
Market Performance Across Soybean Complex
The pressure extended across the entire soybean complex. Soymeal futures registered declines ranging from $1.20 to $3.20, indicating a softening demand or an anticipation of increased supply. Similarly, Soy Oil futures were lower, dropping between 18 and 62 points. The broader commodity market also contributed to the bearish sentiment, with crude oil experiencing a substantial decline of $5.20, which added further downward pressure on soybean prices.
Specific futures and cash prices underscored the day’s losses:
- Aug 26 Soybeans closed at $11.55, down 13 3/4 cents.
- Nearby Cash was $11.34 1/2, down 13 3/4 cents.
- Sep 26 Soybeans closed at $11.58 3/4, down 15 cents.
- Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.77 3/4, down 14 1/2 cents.
- New Crop Cash was $11.17 3/4, down 14 1/4 cents.
Weather Outlook and Crop Conditions
A significant driver of Tuesday’s market pressure was the updated weather forecast. Projections for the upcoming week indicate precipitation across a broad swath of the Midwest, specifically much of Iowa (IA), Missouri (MO), Indiana (IN), Wisconsin (WI), Michigan (MI), Ohio (OH), northern Indiana, and southern Minnesota (MN). Such forecasts can alleviate concerns about dry conditions, potentially leading to improved crop yields and, consequently, lower prices.
Weekly Crop Progress data released by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) provided a mixed picture of current crop health. Overall condition ratings remained steady at 63% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index unchanged at 363. However, beneath this stable national average, there were notable shifts at the state level. Kansas (KS) and Nebraska (NE) saw their ratings drop by 9 points, while Michigan (MI) and Minnesota (MN) were down 8 points, and North Dakota (ND) slipped by 1 point. Conversely, improvements were observed in Illinois (IL), Indiana (IN), and Missouri (MO), which each gained 3 points. Iowa (IA) improved by 2 points, and Ohio (OH) saw a significant 5-point increase in condition ratings.
Production Estimates and Export Activity
Adding to the supply-side outlook, StoneX released its initial estimate for the 2026 US soybean crop, projecting an average yield of 53 bushels per acre (bpa), which would translate to a total production of 4.47 billion bushels (bbu). This early estimate provides a foundational figure for market participants assessing future supply.
On the demand front, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported a new sale of 132,000 metric tons (MT) of 2026/27 soybeans to China, indicating continued international interest. However, monthly Census data for June revealed a more nuanced export landscape. Total soybean exports for June stood at 1.917 million metric tons (MMT), marking the largest June total in four years. Despite this, the figure represented a 14.35% decrease from the May total, suggesting some month-over-month moderation. Within the complex, June meal exports reached a record high of 1.494 MMT, while bean oil exports saw a significant drop to 9,319 MT.
The confluence of a wetter forecast, which could bolster crop prospects, and a broader downturn in the commodity complex, particularly crude oil, exerted considerable downward pressure on soybean prices on Tuesday. While export figures showed some robust activity, especially for soymeal, the overall market sentiment leaned bearish, reflecting the anticipated impact of improved growing conditions and external market weakness. Traders will closely monitor subsequent weather patterns and updated crop progress reports to gauge the trajectory of soybean prices in the coming weeks.
