The cryptocurrency XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has seen its value plummet by more than 60% since peaking near $3.65 last July, now trading around $1.30. This significant decline has occurred despite the materialization of two major catalysts bulls had anticipated for years: the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) settling its case against Ripple and the launch of spot XRP ETFs in the U.S., such as the Bitwise XRP ETF. As of April 9, 2026, the token finds itself back at roughly the same price level it held before these pivotal events, prompting a reevaluation of its long-term prospects.
The Widening Gulf Between Ripple’s Business and XRP’s Value
Johnny Rice, writing for The Motley Fool, anticipates that XRP will “seriously struggle to keep pace with the broader crypto market over the next five years.” This forecast, however, does not suggest a slowdown in banking adoption for Ripple, the company behind XRP, or a decline in its overall success. On the contrary, Rice posits that Ripple is likely to thrive, but its corporate achievements may not translate into gains for XRP holders. This growing disconnect is a critical factor for investors to consider.
Ripple operates with two primary business lines, each serving distinct segments of the financial industry. The first, and significantly larger, segment is a settlement messaging system predominantly utilized by major banks and financial institutions. Crucially, this system does not involve XRP itself, as banks generally prefer not to manage such a volatile asset. The second business line, primarily catering to smaller institutions, often leverages XRP to facilitate cross-border transactions. In this model, funds are converted to XRP and then into the desired destination currency, enabling seamless international money transfers. Despite the utility for smaller players, the volume handled by this XRP-dependent side is insufficient to “really move the needle for XRP,” according to Rice.
Ripple’s Strategic Pivot to Stablecoins
Further complicating XRP’s position is Ripple’s recent strategic pivot towards stablecoins. The company is now actively promoting its new stablecoin, RLUSD, as a core component of its product offerings. RLUSD is designed to fulfill the same role as XRP in cross-border transactions, acting as a “bridge asset.” This development presents financial organizations with a choice, and for those prioritizing stability above all else, the decision to use a stablecoin like RLUSD over a volatile asset like XRP is straightforward.
This move represents an “active choice by Ripple” to capitalize on the burgeoning popularity of stablecoins and avoid being left behind by an XRP-only ecosystem. Evidence of this strategic shift is visible on Ripple’s corporate website, where “integrate stablecoin payments into your business” is prominently featured as the first item on its payments page. This diversification ensures that “Ripple wins either way,” but the benefits for XRP holders are increasingly diminished.
An Uncomfortable Future for XRP Holders
Looking ahead five years, the outlook for XRP holders appears challenging. Johnny Rice projects that by then, Ripple will likely have evolved into “a bigger, stronger payments company,” with a significant expansion in the adoption of its underlying technology. However, even if Ripple’s products genuinely transform cross-border banking, Rice does not anticipate that XRP holders will reap the benefits. The cryptocurrency, in his assessment, “seems destined for an uncomfortable future.”
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team, for instance, did not include XRP among their identified top 10 stocks for investors to buy, reinforcing the cautious sentiment surrounding the token. As investors increasingly recognize the fundamental disconnect between Ripple’s corporate success and XRP’s utility, the speculative hype that once fueled the token’s price may continue to fade, leaving XRP to struggle in keeping pace with the broader cryptocurrency market.
