Wheat futures closed the trading week on a positive note Friday, with gains observed across the three major U.S. markets. The rebound offered a measure of relief after a week characterized by downward pressure on July contracts.
Market Movements on Friday
In Chicago, Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat futures saw increases ranging from 5 3/4 to 7 3/4 cents. Despite this Friday surge, the July SRW contract concluded the week down 18 3/4 cents from the previous Friday’s close.
Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat futures, traded in Kansas City (KC), also posted gains. These contracts were 7 3/4 to 11 1/4 cents higher on Friday. Similar to the Chicago market, the July KC HRW contract experienced a weekly decline of 18 3/4 cents.
Minneapolis spring wheat futures followed suit, with gains of 4 3/4 to 7 1/4 cents by the close of trading. The July Minneapolis spring wheat contract, however, registered the steepest weekly loss among the three, falling 25 1/2 cents over the course of the week.
Shifting Speculator Positions
Recent data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) indicates a notable shift in managed money positions. In Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures and options, managed money accounts flipped back to a net short position, now holding 9,903 contracts. This change was driven by a significant move of 20,567 contracts.
Conversely, in Kansas City wheat futures and options, speculative traders expanded their net long positions. They added another 7,245 contracts, bringing their total net long position to 37,869 contracts.
Export Sales and Upcoming Reports
The latest USDA Export Sales report revealed that total commitments for old crop wheat sales reached 24.94 million metric tons (MMT). This figure represents a 15% increase year-over-year and stands at 102% of the USDA’s initial estimate, aligning closely with the average sales pace of 103%.
Actual shipments of old crop wheat have totaled 22.056 MMT, accounting for 90% of the USDA’s target. This pace is one percentage point behind the normal shipment trajectory.
Looking ahead, market participants are anticipating the release of the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Tuesday. A Bloomberg survey suggests that old crop wheat stocks are projected to be down 8 million bushels (mbu) at 930 mbu.
The report will also provide new crop data, with U.S. stocks for the upcoming harvest estimated at 845 mbu. The range of projections for new crop stocks spans from 759 mbu to 955 mbu.
Industry Events on the Horizon
The annual Kansas HRW wheat tour is scheduled to take place next week. This event is a key indicator for the expected yield and production of the hard red winter wheat crop in the region.
Friday’s Closing Prices
Specific closing prices for key wheat contracts on Friday, May 26, were as follows:
- May 26 CBOT Wheat: $6.07 1/2, up 5 3/4 cents
- Jul 26 CBOT Wheat: $6.19, up 6 3/4 cents
- May 26 KCBT Wheat: $6.72 1/2, up 17 3/4 cents
- Jul 26 KCBT Wheat: $6.75 3/4, up 8 1/2 cents
- May 26 MIAX Wheat: $6.70 3/4, up 5 1/2 cents
- Jul 26 MIAX Wheat: $6.79 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents
The modest gains across the wheat complex on Friday provided a brief respite from the week’s earlier declines, with attention now turning to upcoming USDA reports and the ongoing harvest season for crucial insights into market direction.
