LONDON (AP) — A decade after the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, its political system continues to grapple with the fallout, a period characterized by instability and a deeply divided electorate. Tuesday marks 10 years since the June 23, 2016, referendum, where 52% of voters opted for Brexit after more than four decades of EU membership. The immediate aftermath saw Prime Minister David Cameron, who had called the vote, resign the following day.
A Decade of Political Upheaval
Since the referendum, Britain has seen its seventh prime minister, with the latest being Labour’s Keir Starmer, who announced his resignation after two years in office. His tenure, like those of his predecessors, was marked by a sluggish economy, governmental inefficiencies, and a jaded populace, all significantly influenced by the consequences of Brexit. Chris Grey, an academic specializing in the post-Brexit landscape, noted that the ‘subterranean trace of Brexit’ continues to permeate Britain’s increasingly volatile politics.
The promises made by Brexit campaigners—to ‘take back control’ of laws, economy, and borders—have collided with hard realities. While the ‘remain’ campaign focused on economic risks, the ‘leave’ side tapped into emotive narratives. Boris Johnson, a prominent Leave campaigner and later Prime Minister, spoke of ‘sunlit meadows beyond’ and a ‘once-in-a-lifetime chance’ to exit the bloc.
Margaret MacMillan, emeritus professor of history at the University of Toronto, suggested Brexit was fueled by a complex mix of motives, including nostalgia for an ‘imagined past,’ opposition to perceived unrestricted immigration and EU regulations, and a romanticized view of Britain’s wartime isolation. She also pointed out that the precise implications of Brexit were never clearly articulated.
Unfulfilled Promises and Economic Strain
The years following the vote were dominated by acrimonious divorce negotiations. The UK formally left the EU on January 31, 2020, followed by an 11-month transition period. Theresa May, Cameron’s successor, resigned in 2019 after failing to secure parliamentary approval for her exit terms. Boris Johnson then promised to ‘get Brexit done,’ securing a minimal trade deal that left UK-EU relations in a deep freeze. His premiership ended in mid-2022 amid financial and ethical scandals, leading to the brief tenure of Liz Truss, who lasted just 49 days. Rishi Sunak, her successor, sought to thaw relations with the EU without enacting substantial policy shifts.
Keir Starmer’s promise of a ‘reset’ did not include rejoining the EU’s single market, a move that would have eliminated tariffs and trade barriers. A decade on, Brexit remains an unresolved issue.
Lingering Divisions and Shifting Alliances
Historian Anthony Seldon observed that Cameron’s hope that the referendum would settle the long-standing debate over Europe within the Conservative Party proved unfounded. Those with strong views on the matter continue to hold them. The Conservative Party itself saw a purge of members favoring a softer Brexit, replaced by the dominant Brexiteer faction. Labour, while more pro-EU, faces internal divisions between those advocating for closer ties or rejoining, and leaders like Starmer who sought to avoid reopening old wounds.
This political fragmentation has led millions of voters to abandon the two major parties for alternatives such as the Green Party and Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage. Farage, a key Brexit figure, has arguably been its greatest political beneficiary, campaigning for the divorce and subsequently lamenting its perceived betrayal. His anti-immigration platform has evolved, and his party consistently leads in opinion polls.
Economic Headwinds and Eroding Trust
The UK economy has struggled over the past decade, with businesses encountering new trade hurdles with European neighbors. While Brexit is not the sole cause—the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and other global events have also played a role—it has contributed to low growth. Hannah White, director of the Institute for Government, criticized politicians for failing to be transparent with the public about the trade-offs between tax increases, debt, and public services.
Debates around immigration have intensified, irrespective of actual numbers. Net migration rose significantly post-Brexit, reaching over 900,000 in 2023 before falling to 171,000 in the following year. This has coincided with a rise in cynicism and a decline in trust in politicians. In recent years, agitators have fueled anti-immigration sentiment and street violence, sometimes based on misinformation.
Chris Grey noted a concerning erosion of the boundary between conventional political discourse and street-level violence, a trend he believes began with Brexit. Polls indicate a degree of ‘Bregret,’ with a recent Ipsos survey showing 52% of Britons would favor rejoining the EU, compared to 33% who oppose it. While ‘rejoin’ marches occur, many Britons simply wish to move past the issue.
However, Brexit remains a political minefield. Even a desire to rejoin the EU would entail a lengthy and uncertain process with a wary bloc. Until politicians confront Brexit’s legacy directly, Grey suggests Britain faces a persistent ‘undertow of low-grade crisis,’ akin to a chronic illness that saps energy but remains untreated due to the unpleasantness of seeking medical attention.
