Corn futures concluded July with notable declines, as Friday’s trading session saw contracts post losses ranging from 1 ½ to 5 cents. This end-of-month downturn pushed both September and December contracts to a weekly loss of 23 ½ cents, influenced by spillover weakness from the wheat market, anticipated rainfall, and typical month-end positioning. Despite the recent dip, the December 2026 corn contract still managed to close the week 28 cents higher, indicating a more complex underlying market dynamic.
The Friday session’s close underscored a challenging period for corn prices. The September 2026 corn contract settled at $4.40 3/4, down 5 cents, while the December 2026 contract closed at $4.64, shedding 4 ½ cents. Further out, the March 2027 corn contract also saw a decline of 4 ¾ cents, ending at $4.79 3/4. Concurrently, the CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price experienced a 6-cent reduction, settling at $4.10, with New Crop Cash also down 6 ¼ cents to $4.12 1/2.
Factors Driving Weakness
Several factors converged to exert downward pressure on corn prices. Analysts pointed to spillover weakness originating from the wheat market, suggesting a broader sentiment affecting grain commodities. Additionally, the forecast for weekend rains across key agricultural regions, including parts of Eastern Iowa, Southern Wisconsin/Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, likely contributed to the bearish sentiment. Such precipitation can alleviate drought concerns and improve crop conditions, potentially leading to higher yields and increased supply expectations. Month-end pressure, a common phenomenon as traders adjust positions, also played a role in the session’s declines.
Investor Sentiment and Export Performance
However, not all indicators suggested a bearish outlook. Data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday afternoon revealed that managed money significantly increased its net long position in corn futures and options during the week ending July 28. These investors added 75,490 contracts, bringing the total net long to 168,399 contracts as of Tuesday. This substantial accumulation of long positions by institutional investors suggests an underlying confidence in corn’s future price trajectory, despite the immediate market weakness.
Export sales data presented a mixed but generally robust picture. Old crop corn sales reached 86.975 million metric tons (MMT), which represents 103% of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projection and is notably ahead of the pace observed in the last few years. Accumulated shipments for old crop corn stood at 76.373 MMT, fulfilling 90% of the USDA’s export projection. For new crop corn, sales totaled 8.624 MMT, a figure that is just 0.1% above the sales recorded during the same period last year. These export figures highlight a continued strong demand for U.S. corn, particularly for the old crop, which could provide a floor for prices moving forward.
The conclusion of July for corn futures presented a dichotomy of immediate price weakness against a backdrop of strong investor positioning and robust export demand. While short-term factors like weather forecasts and broader market sentiment drove down prices in the final session, the significant increase in managed money’s net long positions and healthy export numbers for old crop corn suggest that market participants may be anticipating a rebound or see current levels as attractive entry points. The coming weeks will reveal whether these underlying strengths can counteract the recent downward momentum and provide renewed support for corn prices.
