The soybean market concluded Thursday, August 13, 2026, with a mixed performance across contracts, as robust new crop export sales to China provided underlying support against slight downward adjustments in global production forecasts. Prices fluctuated, with some contracts closing higher by as much as 3 ½ cents, while others saw declines of up to 2 ¾ cents across the board, reflecting a complex interplay of supply and demand factors.
According to cmdtyView data, the national average Cash Bean price registered an increase of 4 ½ cents, settling at $11.45 ¼. This uptick in cash prices offered a notable counterpoint to the more varied performance observed in the futures market. Related commodities within the broader soy complex also experienced distinct movements. Soymeal futures declined by 90 cents to $2.40 on the day, while Soy Oil saw a drop ranging from 4 to 37 points, indicating broader pressures within the edible oils sector.
Robust Export Activity Signals Strong Future Demand
A pivotal factor influencing market sentiment on Thursday was the strong and sustained international demand for soybeans, particularly from China. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported a private export sale of 125,000 metric tons (MT) of soybeans to China, specifically designated for 2026/27 shipment. This direct sale underscored China’s continued strategic importance as a primary destination for U.S. agricultural exports.
Further reinforcing the bullish export narrative, the comprehensive weekly Export Sales data for the period ending August 6 revealed exceptionally strong new crop bookings. New crop sales were tallied at an impressive 1.76 million metric tons (MMT), a figure that not only marked the second largest volume recorded for the current marketing year but also represented a staggering increase of more than triple the sales observed during the same week in the previous year. This substantial surge in forward demand indicates a strong global appetite for future soybean harvests. China emerged as the overwhelmingly dominant buyer in this period, accounting for a massive 1.446 MMT of these new crop sales. An additional 272,000 MT were designated for unknown destinations. In stark contrast, old crop sales for the same week were considerably more modest, totaling just 75,119 MT, highlighting a clear shift in focus towards upcoming supplies.
Beyond whole soybeans, the export market for derivative products also demonstrated significant activity. Soybean meal sales were pegged at 218,377 MT, a volume that fell squarely within the middle of analyst estimates, ranging from 100,000 to 400,000 MT. This total comprised 69,421 MT allocated for the 2025/26 marketing year and a larger portion of 148,956 MT designated for 2026/27. Bean oil bookings, however, presented a more nuanced picture, with net cancellations of 6,005 MT recorded for the 2025/26 period, partially offset by new sales totaling 4,354 MT for the 2026/27 marketing year.
Brazilian Production Forecast Trimmed, Influencing Global Supply Outlook
Adding another critical layer of influence to the global supply outlook, CONAB, Brazil’s national supply company, announced a slight downward revision to its Brazilian soybean production forecast on Thursday. The agency trimmed its estimate by 0.11 MMT, bringing the new projected total to 180.46 MMT. While this adjustment might appear modest in the context of Brazil’s vast agricultural output, any revision from a major producing nation can significantly contribute to market volatility and influence global price discovery, especially when juxtaposed against robust export demand from key importing regions. Such adjustments are closely watched by traders and analysts for their potential to tighten or loosen global supply balances.
Detailed Futures and Cash Price Movements Reflect Market Nuances
A closer examination of specific contract performances on Thursday revealed the granular nature of the day’s mixed trade, with different delivery periods reacting to distinct market forces. The August 2026 Soybeans contract, representing near-term supply, closed at $11.68 ¼, posting a gain of 3 ½ cents. Similarly, the September 2026 Soybeans contract saw a modest increase, settling at $11.66, up ¾ cent.
Conversely, other contracts experienced slight declines, indicating a more cautious outlook for later periods. Nearby Cash prices were down ½ cent, closing at $11.40 ¼. The November 2026 Soybeans contract, often considered a bellwether for the upcoming main harvest, dipped by 1 cent to finish at $11.82 ¼. New Crop Cash prices also saw a marginal decrease of ¾ cent, ending the day at $11.24 ¼. These varied movements across different delivery periods and cash markets underscored the complex and often localized factors influencing soybean valuations.
The day’s trading activity, as reported by Austin Schroeder for Barchart, painted a detailed picture of a soybean market grappling with conflicting signals. Strong international demand, particularly for future shipments to China, provided a significant bullish undercurrent, while minor adjustments to global production estimates and varied performance in derivative markets introduced elements of caution and rebalancing. The ongoing interplay between robust export interest, evolving supply dynamics from major producers, and the performance of related soy products will undoubtedly continue to shape market direction in the coming weeks, as participants monitor further developments in both demand and production forecasts.
