Corn futures faced midweek pressure on Wednesday, with contracts closing lower across most months. Dec ’25 Corn futures settled down 7 cents at $4.29 3/4, while Mar ’26 Corn futures fell 8 cents to $4.41 1/2, and May ’26 Corn futures were off 7 1/2 cents at $4.49. The CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price reflected this trend, declining 6 3/4 cents to $3.91 1/4.
External Market Forces Impacting Corn
The decline in corn futures was exacerbated by broader market movements. Crude oil prices saw a notable drop of $1.15, contributing to the bearish sentiment. Simultaneously, the dollar index climbed by $0.606, often a headwind for commodities priced in U.S. dollars.
Ethanol Production and Inventory Data
Recent data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated a rebound in ethanol production for the week ending November 14. Production increased by 16,000 barrels per day, reaching 1.091 million barrels per day. Ethanol stocks also saw an increase, rising by 88,000 barrels to a total of 22.307 million barrels.
However, export activity for ethanol showed a decrease, slipping by 12,000 barrels per day to 150,000 barrels per day. Refiner inputs of ethanol also declined, down 7,000 barrels per day to 888,000 barrels per day. These mixed signals in the ethanol sector may have contributed to the pressure on corn futures, as ethanol production is a significant driver of corn demand.
Corn Export Performance and Outlook
Census data released on Wednesday provided insights into August corn exports, revealing a record for the month. A total of 6.397 million metric tons (251.8 million bushels) were exported, representing a 25.42% increase compared to the previous year and a 2.76% rise from July. Distillers’ exports also showed strength, up 7.47% year-over-year at 1.167 million metric tons.
Ethanol exports achieved a record for August, reaching 188.77 million gallons. This figure is up 23.76% from the prior year and 14.84% higher than in July. Looking ahead, analysts are anticipating the Export Sales report for the week of October 2, with projections for corn sales ranging between 1.4 and 2.5 million metric tons.
International Demand and Supply Factors
International demand for corn remains a key factor. A South Korean importer reportedly purchased between 130,000 and 135,000 metric tons of corn in a tender on Tuesday, though the origin of the purchase has not yet been disclosed. In South America, Brazil’s ANEC estimates the country’s November corn export total at 6.36 million metric tons, an upward revision of 0.32 million metric tons from the previous week’s estimates.
Speculative Positioning in Futures Markets
Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) indicated a shift in speculative positioning. As of the week ending September 30, speculators in corn futures and options increased their net short position by 40,635 contracts. At that time, their net short stood at 135,310 contracts, suggesting a bearish sentiment among these market participants, although this data is from a prior period.
The confluence of external market pressures, mixed signals from the ethanol sector, and the broader macroeconomic environment contributed to the downward movement in corn futures on Wednesday. While recent export data shows robust performance, the market continues to digest a complex set of supply and demand factors.
