Corn futures closed Thursday’s trading session with notable declines, as increased supply projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) exerted downward pressure on the market. Most contracts registered losses ranging from 7 to 10 ½ cents. Concurrently, the CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price also saw a decrease, settling down 6 3/4 cents at $3.80 1/2.
USDA Revisions Drive Market Pressure
The primary catalyst for Thursday’s market downturn was the USDA’s latest monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. This report revealed significant adjustments to global corn supply figures, particularly an upward revision in South American production forecasts. Brazil’s corn production estimate was raised by 3 million metric tons (MMT) to a total of 138 MMT, while Argentina’s forecast increased by 2 MMT to 61 MMT. These substantial increases in anticipated output from key global suppliers directly contributed to the bearish sentiment observed in the futures market.
Further data from CONAB, Brazil’s national supply company, released on the same morning, corroborated the robust production outlook. CONAB pegged the 2025/26 Brazilian crop at 140.46 MMT, an increase of 0.29 MMT from its previous month’s estimate. Within this, the first crop was raised by 0.88 MMT to 28.46 MMT, although the second crop saw a slight reduction of 0.58 MMT to 107.87 MMT. These figures collectively underscore an environment of ample supply, which typically translates to lower commodity prices.
Global and Domestic Stock Adjustments
The implications of increased global production extended to ending stock projections. According to WASDE data, 2025/26 world ending stocks were revised up by 6.41 MMT, reaching a total of 303.36 MMT. The new crop carryout also saw an increase of 3.68 MMT, settling at 281.22 MMT. These higher global inventory levels signal a well-supplied market, reducing concerns about potential shortages and thereby dampening price enthusiasm.
Domestically, the USDA’s report also detailed adjustments to U.S. old crop ending stocks, which were raised by 3 million bushels (mbu) from the previous month to 2.145 billion bushels (bbu). This increase was primarily influenced by a 25 mbu drop in corn used for ethanol, which was offset by a corresponding 25 mbu increase in exports. Additionally, U.S. imports were raised by 3 mbu. The 3 mbu increase in old crop ending stocks carried through to the next marketing year, with new crop U.S. ending stocks also rising by 3 mbu to 1.96 bbu.
Export Sales Show Strength Amidst Price Declines
Despite the downward pressure on prices, export sales data released on Thursday morning indicated robust demand for U.S. corn. Old crop corn business for the week of June 4 totaled 1.00 MMT, marking a 13.3% increase from the prior week and a substantial 26.4% rise compared to the same week last year. Japan emerged as the top buyer, securing 373,100 metric tons (MT), followed closely by Mexico with 356,200 MT.
New crop sales also demonstrated considerable strength, reaching 926,645 MT for the week. This brought the total new crop business to 4.124 MMT, representing a significant 31.6% increase from the same point last year. Japan again led the purchasing, acquiring 241,000 MT, with Colombia buying 237,500 MT and South Korea securing 204,000 MT. The strong export performance suggests underlying demand, even as increased global supply forecasts weigh on prices.
Contract Performance Overview
Specific corn futures contracts reflected the broader market sentiment:
- Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.11 3/4, down 7 1/4 cents.
- Nearby Cash was $3.80 1/2, down 6 3/4 cents.
- Sep 26 Corn closed at $4.20, down 7 3/4 cents.
- Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.39 1/2, down 7 1/4 cents.
- New Crop Cash was $3.94 3/4, down 7 1/4 cents.
The consistent declines across various contracts underscore the market’s immediate reaction to the USDA’s updated supply outlook. While export demand remains healthy, the prospect of larger global harvests, particularly from South America, appears to be the dominant factor influencing corn prices, suggesting that supply-side dynamics are currently outweighing demand-side strength in shaping market direction.
