Cotton futures concluded Friday, June 12, 2026, with a largely steady trading session, marked by a notable uptick in the July contract. While July futures climbed 43 points, other contracts experienced minor adjustments, ranging from steady to 5 points lower, as reported by Austin Schroeder for Barchart. This performance unfolded against a backdrop of broader commodity market shifts, including a significant drop in crude oil prices and a slight weakening of the U.S. dollar.
Futures Market Dynamics and Broader Economic Indicators
Specifically, the July 2026 cotton contract settled at 72.92 cents per pound, registering a gain of 43 points. In contrast, the December 2026 contract edged down by 1 point to 76.35 cents, and the March 2027 contract saw a 4-point decrease, closing at 77.56 cents. These movements occurred as crude oil prices fell by $2.85, settling at $84.86 per barrel, a factor that can influence production costs and demand for synthetic fibers. Concurrently, the U.S. dollar index softened by $0.109, reaching 99.740, potentially impacting the competitiveness of U.S. cotton exports.
USDA Export Sales Report Highlights
The latest Export Sales report from the USDA provided key insights into the demand side of the cotton market. Old crop cotton commitments now stand at 11.541 million running bales (RB). This figure represents 101% of the USDA’s export projection, which was revised higher on Thursday. However, it trails the average sales pace of 110%, indicating a slightly slower commitment rate compared to historical averages. Shipments for old crop reached 9.183 million RB, which is 80.3% of the USDA’s current estimate, also falling marginally behind the 82% average shipping pace. These metrics offer a granular view of the current export trajectory and its alignment with official forecasts.
WASDE Data Adjustments Impacting Supply
Further influencing market sentiment were the adjustments detailed in the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) data released on Thursday. The report indicated a 200,000 bale reduction in old crop stocks, bringing the total to 4.2 million bales. Simultaneously, old crop exports were revised upwards by 200,000 bales, reaching 12.2 million bales. For the new crop, stocks were also adjusted downwards by the same 200,000 bale amount, settling at 3.7 million bales. These revisions highlight a tightening supply outlook for both current and upcoming harvests, potentially providing underlying support for prices despite immediate fluctuations.
Industry-Specific Market Indicators
Beyond futures and USDA reports, several other industry-specific indicators contributed to the day’s market assessment. The Seam’s online auction on Thursday recorded sales of 1,071 bales, achieving an average price of 63.24 cents per pound. The Cotlook A Index, a key benchmark for international cotton prices, remained unchanged on June 11 at 83.65 cents. Meanwhile, ICE certified cotton stocks saw a minor decrease of 90 bales on June 12, with the total certified level standing at 192,699 bales. The Adjusted World Price (AWP) experienced a more significant decline, falling another 194 points on Thursday to 61.26 cents per pound, reflecting adjustments in global price benchmarks.
The steady Friday trade in cotton futures, characterized by specific contract gains and declines, reflects a market actively processing a confluence of data points. From USDA’s detailed export and supply adjustments to broader macroeconomic factors and specialized industry metrics, the cotton market continues to exhibit a dynamic equilibrium as participants assess current conditions and future outlooks.
