The hog market experienced declines across most futures contracts on Tuesday, with December 2024 hogs posting the most significant losses. This downward movement in futures was mirrored by a notable drop in wholesale pork cutout values, signaling a challenging session for the broader market.
Futures Contracts See Broad Declines
Trading on Tuesday saw lean hog futures contracts close with losses ranging from a nickel to $2.10. The December 2024 Hogs contract, a key benchmark, settled at $81.125, down $2.100 from the previous close. Further out, the February 2025 Hogs contract also declined by $0.825, closing at $84.500. The April 2025 Hogs contract followed suit, ending the day at $88.100, a decrease of $0.500.
Wholesale Pork Cutout Value Dips
Adding to the market’s bearish sentiment, the USDA’s FOB plant pork cutout value was reported lower in the Tuesday PM report. It fell by $2.58 from the day prior, settling at $101.43 per cwt. This decline was broad-based across key primal cuts, with the loin, butt, ham, and belly primals all reported lower, indicating weakening demand or increased supply pressure at the wholesale level.
Spot Prices and Index Show Mixed Signals
In contrast to the futures market and wholesale cutout values, the national average base hog price presented a different picture. It was reported at $83.37 on Tuesday afternoon, marking a $5.87 increase from the previous afternoon. This divergence highlights the varied dynamics between the immediate cash market and forward-looking futures. Separately, the CME Lean Hog Index, reported on November 1, stood at $89.38, an increase of 86 cents from the day prior, providing a snapshot of the cash market earlier in the month.
Export Performance and Slaughter Data
Providing broader context to the market, converted Census data revealed robust September pork exports. Totaling 549.2 million lbs, this figure represents a record for the month, up 7.3% from the previous year. However, it was 2% below the August total, suggesting a slight month-over-month moderation despite strong annual growth. On the supply side, the USDA estimated Tuesday’s federally inspected (FI) hog slaughter at 488,000 head. The weekly total reached 977,000 head, which is 1,000 head above the previous week’s total and 766 head larger than the same week last year, indicating a steady to slightly increased slaughter pace.
The market’s performance on Tuesday presented a complex picture, with forward contracts and wholesale pork values facing downward pressure, even as the national base hog price saw an uptick. This interplay of futures, spot prices, and export data will continue to shape the outlook for the hog sector.
