A framework agreement between the United States and Iran, aimed at de-escalating Gulf hostilities and reopening the vital Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping, has been hailed as a significant development. However, maritime risk management agencies and industry experts caution that the path back to normal trading conditions will be fraught with challenges, potentially extending disruptions for months.
The proposed deal, reportedly scheduled for signing this week, envisions the reopening of the strait without tolls, the lifting of a US naval blockade on Iranian ports, and the resumption of Tehran’s oil exports under limited sanctions relief. It also includes a 60-day ceasefire extension while broader talks on Iran’s nuclear program commence. Yet, analysts liken the situation not to simply reopening a highway after an accident, but to a complex process requiring extensive clearance and confidence-building measures.
Clearing the Waterways: A Minefield of Uncertainty
A primary hurdle to the safe resumption of shipping is the presence of naval mines deployed by Iran during the recent conflict. While minesweepers, underwater drones, and sonar can locate many of these devices, maritime experts warn that some may have drifted or be exceptionally difficult to find. Independent verification of the waterway’s safety will be crucial, a process that sources cited by Reuters suggest could take between 40 to 50 days.
Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at the shipping association BIMCO, emphasized the current risks, calling for the establishment of “mine-free routes” before transits can be considered safe. The immediate resumption of normal traffic through Hormuz is deemed “very risky” by industry observers.
War-Risk Insurance: A Costly Barrier
Even after mines are cleared, the cost of war-risk insurance remains a significant deterrent for shipping firms. Premiums are currently running at an extremely high 1% to 4% of a vessel’s value per transit, a stark contrast to pre-conflict rates below 0.1%. For a typical $200 million tanker, this translates to an additional $2 million to $8 million per transit, compared to less than $200,000 previously.
An unnamed insurance underwriter in Singapore described premiums as “quick to go up, slow to go down.” Anoop Singh, global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage Ltd., noted that shipowners’ risk tolerance will dictate their willingness to resume operations. “The Japanese, Koreans and Chinese are less open to high risk, while the Greeks have a different appetite — so we may see some people gearing up,” Singh told Bloomberg, suggesting a staggered return of shipping traffic based on national risk appetites.
Stranded Vessels and Crew Concerns
Once safe corridors are established, hundreds of commercial vessels and their crews, stranded for months in the wider Gulf region, can begin to move. Data from commodity intelligence firm Kpler indicates that approximately 300 fully loaded vessels are currently waiting in the Gulf, with another 250 empty and awaiting loading. An additional 300 empty tankers are positioned in the Gulf of Oman, awaiting permission to enter.
Staffing these vessels presents another challenge. The UN’s International Maritime Organization estimates that around 20,000 seafarers remain aboard stranded ships. The agency has also confirmed 14 crew fatalities due to attacks. Amid growing reluctance among crews to accept deployments in the Gulf, India’s Directorate General of Shipping has restricted deployments to conflict zones.
Energy Infrastructure and Geopolitical Undercurrents
While Gulf countries can begin ramping up oil and gas production, this process requires extensive safety inspections and repairs to damaged energy facilities. A full restart hinges on restoring shipment schedules, securing sufficient tankers, and convincing international buyers of the reliability of energy flows.
Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, projects that it could take until the end of September for around 80% of energy flows through Hormuz to resume. He warned that natural gas flows will be slower to return, citing damage to Qatar’s Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas hub, which could impact export capacity for several years.
The most significant unresolved issue is the nature of the US-Iran agreement itself, which is described as a framework. Disagreements persist over tolls for the strait, with the US insisting on a permanently toll-free passage while Iran has spoken of “service fees” and retaining control alongside Oman. With broader issues such as Iran’s nuclear ambitions, sanctions relief, and its support for regional groups unresolved, analysts foresee a continued risk of further attacks. Iran may continue to test boundaries, and statements from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, stressing Israel’s non-adherence to the agreement and its right to self-defense, raise fears that unilateral actions could destabilize the fragile framework.
