Live cattle futures registered a notable decline on Thursday, with contracts closing between $1.80 and $2.47 lower. This downward pressure in the futures market coincided with a sharp drop in the cash trade, which commenced the day at $247-$248 per hundredweight across the country. This represents a significant decrease of $7-$8 compared to the prices observed last week.
Fed Cattle Exchange Sees No Sales
Adding to the bearish sentiment, the Thursday Fed Cattle Exchange online auction failed to secure any sales for the 1,356 head offered. Bids submitted during the auction ranged from $245 to $248 per hundredweight, indicating a lack of buyer interest at levels that could support current market prices.
Feeder Cattle Futures Also Decline
The weakness extended to feeder cattle futures, which also experienced a downturn, falling between $4.90 and $5.90 on Thursday. Despite this decline in futures, the CME Feeder Cattle Index showed a slight increase, rising $3.70 on July 8th to reach $374.45. This divergence between futures and the index could suggest underlying complexities in the feeder cattle market.
Export Sales Data Mixed
Recent export sales data from the USDA provided a mixed picture for the beef market. For the week ending July 2nd, 2026, beef sales were reported at 13,977 metric tons. This figure was an increase from the previous week, following a correction issued by the USDA that revised the week of June 25th’s sales to 12,064 metric tons. However, beef shipments for the same week were tallied at 14,492 metric tons, indicating a decrease from the prior week.
Wholesale Boxed Beef Prices Show Divergence
In the wholesale sector, boxed beef prices presented a mixed performance in Thursday afternoon reports. The Choice/Select spread stood at $17.32. Choice boxes saw a decrease of 39 cents, closing at $380.81. Conversely, Select boxes experienced a modest gain of 40 cents, reaching $363.49. This divergence suggests varying demand levels for different quality grades of beef.
Slaughter Numbers Down Year-Over-Year
USDA’s estimates for federally inspected cattle slaughter on Thursday indicated 112,000 head processed. This brought the weekly total to 430,000 head. This figure represents a decrease of 3,000 head from the previous week. More significantly, the weekly slaughter is down by 35,480 head when compared to the same week in the prior year, potentially signaling shifts in herd management or processing capacity.
Futures Contract Performance
Specific contract performance on Thursday included:
- August 2026 Live Cattle closed at $235.250, down $2.375.
- October 2026 Live Cattle closed at $231.600, down $1.950.
- December 2026 Live Cattle closed at $231.550, down $2.100.
- August 2026 Feeder Cattle closed at $356.150, down $5.900.
- September 2026 Feeder Cattle closed at $353.000, down $5.650.
- October 2026 Feeder Cattle closed at $349.325, down $5.300.
The confluence of falling live cattle futures, a significant drop in cash trade, and an unsuccessful Fed Cattle Exchange auction paints a picture of considerable weakness in the cattle market on Thursday. While export data offered some positive signals, the overall sentiment appears to be dictated by immediate supply and demand dynamics at the producer level, with buyers showing a clear reluctance to engage at previous price points.
