The global wheat complex witnessed a substantial upward movement across all three primary markets on Friday, with futures contracts posting strong gains. This broad rally was largely attributed to short covering activities as the month of February drew to a close, according to market observations.
Market Performance Across Exchanges
Chicago SRW (Soft Red Winter) futures led the charge, trading 18 to 21 cents higher on Friday. Similarly, KC HRW (Hard Red Winter) futures recorded gains of 18 to 19 cents across most contracts. MPLS (Minneapolis) spring wheat contracts also saw significant increases, rising 13 to 16 ½ cents by the end of the trading day.
A closer look at specific contract performances underscores the widespread strength:
- March 2026 CBOT Wheat settled at $5.92 1/2, up 20 3/4 cents.
- May 2026 CBOT Wheat reached $5.93, marking an increase of 18 1/2 cents.
- March 2026 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.70, higher by 18 1/2 cents.
- May 2026 KCBT Wheat traded at $5.81 1/4, climbing 19 cents.
- March 2026 MIAX Wheat finished at $6.00, up 16 1/2 cents.
- May 2026 MIAX Wheat concluded at $6.12 1/4, an increase of 13 1/2 cents.
Export Dynamics and Global Crop Outlook
Beyond the immediate impact of short covering, underlying demand indicators also provided support to the rallying prices. Weekly Export Sales data for the week ending February 19 revealed a robust export commitment total of 22.998 million metric tons (MMT). This figure represents a 14% increase compared to the same period last year, signaling strong international demand for U.S. wheat.
While impressive, this commitment total stands at 94% of the USDA’s export estimate, slightly trailing the average pace of 96% for this time of year. Nevertheless, the substantial year-over-year improvement in export commitments suggests a healthy demand environment that continues to underpin wheat prices.
On the international front, the condition of the French soft wheat crop showed a slight deterioration. According to FranceAgriMer, the crop was estimated at 84% good/excellent, a decrease of 4 percentage points from the previous week. Such shifts in major producing regions can influence global supply expectations and contribute to market volatility, though the immediate rally on Friday appeared to be driven more by market positioning and export figures.
The broad-based rally across Chicago SRW, KC HRW, and MPLS spring wheat futures on Friday highlights a market reacting to both technical factors, such as short covering, and fundamental strength in export demand. While global crop conditions present a variable element, the current momentum suggests a period of renewed investor interest in the wheat complex.
