Soybean markets concluded Friday’s trading session exhibiting persistent weakness, with futures contracts registering losses of 1 to 2 cents by midday. This downturn was mirrored in the cash market, where the cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price edged down a penny to $10.60 1/2. The broader complex saw mixed performance in derivatives, with Soymeal futures fluctuating between a 20-cent loss and a dime higher, while Soy Oil futures experienced declines ranging from 20 to 36 points.
The prevailing sentiment of weakness was significantly influenced by the latest USDA Export Sales data for the 2025/26 marketing year. The report indicated total soybean business at 40.15 Million Metric Tons (MMT), which represents 97.7% of the USDA’s projection, a figure that had been revised lower just the day prior. Critically, this pace remains behind the 100% average sales benchmark, signaling a slower-than-anticipated export trajectory. Shipments for the same period reached 36 MMT, accounting for 87.6% of USDA’s updated estimate and approaching the 91% average shipping pace.
Further exacerbating concerns over demand, new crop sales have accumulated to 1.032 MMT, marking a notable 7.69% decrease compared to the same period last year. This year-over-year decline in new crop commitments suggests a cautious approach from international buyers or increased competition in the global market, contributing to the downward pressure observed in futures prices.
Insights from the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) data, released earlier in the week, provided additional context for the market’s current state. Old crop U.S. soybean stocks were held steady at 340 million bushels (mbu). However, an internal reallocation within the balance sheet saw 20 mbu shifted from exports to domestic crush, indicating a potential adjustment in demand channels. New crop stocks also remained stable at 310 mbu. On the international front, Brazilian soybean production estimates were maintained at 180 MMT, while Argentina’s production forecast was raised by 2 MMT to 50 MMT. This increase in Argentine output could contribute to a more amply supplied global market, potentially capping price rallies.
Looking ahead, market participants are keenly awaiting the release of the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data on Monday. Traders are forecasting May crush totals to reach 216.02 mbu, with individual estimates ranging from 207.28 mbu to 223.1 mbu. Concurrently, soybean oil stocks are projected to stand at 1.855 billion pounds. The NOPA report is a critical indicator of domestic demand for soybeans and the health of the processing sector, and its findings will likely influence market direction in the coming week.
Specific contract performance on Friday underscored the broad-based weakness. The July 2026 Soybeans contract traded at $11.13 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents. The Nearby Cash price settled at $10.60 1/2, a decline of 1 cent. August 2026 Soybeans were quoted at $11.18 3/4, reflecting a loss of 1 3/4 cents, while the November 2026 Soybeans contract, representing new crop, fell 2 1/4 cents to $11.31 3/4. New Crop Cash also registered a decrease of 1 3/4 cents, closing at $10.67 1/2.
The confluence of a lagging export sales pace, a downward revision in USDA projections, and a year-over-year decline in new crop commitments has created a challenging environment for soybean prices. While domestic crush demand, as anticipated by the upcoming NOPA report, may offer some support, the overall picture points to a market grappling with supply-demand dynamics that currently favor lower prices. The stability in U.S. stock levels, coupled with an upward adjustment in Argentine production, further reinforces the narrative of adequate, if not abundant, global supplies. Traders will continue to monitor export activity and domestic processing data for clearer signals on future price direction.
