Corn futures registered a significant decline across front-month contracts on Thursday, with prices falling between 9 and 15 cents. This downturn was largely attributed to a broader weakness observed across the entire grain complex, exacerbated by the lack of concrete details emerging from the high-stakes meeting between President Trump and President Xi.
The market’s immediate focus was also on the expiration of May futures contracts, a routine event that can contribute to price volatility. Concurrently, the CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price reflected this bearish sentiment, dropping 13 cents to settle at $4.27, underscoring the downward pressure felt throughout the physical market.
Export Sales Data Reveals Significant Weakness
Further contributing to the bearish outlook was the release of Export Sales data for the week ending May 7. The figures painted a concerning picture for old crop corn business, totaling a mere 684,786 metric tons (MT). This represented the second lowest total recorded for the current marketing year, marking a substantial reduction to just half of the volume reported in the preceding week. Moreover, the data indicated a sharp 59.2% decrease compared to the same week in the previous year, highlighting a significant contraction in international demand.
A breakdown of the export sales revealed Mexico as the leading buyer, securing 232,000 MT. Colombia followed with purchases of 222,000 MT, while Japan accounted for 182,800 MT. New crop sales for the period were minimal, registering just 400 MT, with Honduras being the sole reported buyer.
Brazilian Production Estimates See Upward Revision
On the supply side, CONAB data released on Thursday morning presented an updated outlook for Brazilian corn production, which could add further pressure to global prices. The agency revised its total Brazilian production estimate upwards by 0.6 million metric tons (MMT) from its previous forecast, now projecting a total of 140.17 MMT. This increase was primarily driven by a 0.49 MMT rise in the estimate for the first crop and a more substantial 0.77 MMT increase for the third, or late, crop originating from the northern regions of Brazil. These gains more than offset a 0.66 MMT reduction in the estimate for the second crop.
Legislative Progress and Futures Market Performance
In a development that could influence future demand, the US House of Representatives passed a bill on Wednesday evening to approve year-round sales of E15, a blend of gasoline containing 15% ethanol. This legislative initiative, if enacted, could bolster demand for corn, which is a primary feedstock for ethanol production. However, the bill’s journey is not yet complete, as it now moves to the Senate where it is anticipated to encounter resistance from senators representing oil-producing states.
The futures market reflected the day’s broad declines across various contract months. Specific closing prices for Thursday, May 14, 2026, were as follows:
- Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.67 1/2, down 13 1/4 cents.
- Nearby Cash was $4.27 1/1, down 13 cents.
- Sep 26 Corn closed at $4.74 1/4, down 13 cents.
- Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.91 1/4, down 11 3/4 cents.
- New Crop Cash was $4.43 1/2, down 12 1/2 cents.
The confluence of weak export demand, an upward revision in Brazilian production forecasts, and the prevailing uncertainty surrounding international trade negotiations created a challenging environment for corn prices on Thursday. While legislative efforts like the E15 bill offer a potential long-term demand catalyst, the immediate market sentiment remains largely dictated by current supply-demand fundamentals and geopolitical developments.
