As mid-September 2026 approaches, Germany’s natural gas storage facilities are notably less full than in preceding years, holding approximately 141 terawatt-hours (TWh) of gas, which constitutes about 57% of the nation’s total capacity. This figure, while seemingly robust given last winter’s withdrawal of just under 134 TWh, has ignited political debate and raised concerns about potential supply stability and price volatility for the upcoming winter heating season. The situation underscores a complex interplay of storage levels, diversified imports, and market economics.
Storage Levels Spark Political Debate
The comparatively low storage levels have drawn sharp criticism from political figures. On September 4, Markus Söder, the premier of Bavaria, publicly called for federal government intervention to address the situation. Days later, Britta Hasselmann, co-leader of the Greens’ parliamentary group, accused the economy minister of negligence, stating, “The gas storage facilities are not full. We are facing a potential shortage.” These statements reflect growing anxieties regarding Germany’s energy preparedness.
Sebastian Heinermann, managing director of INES, a German association for gas and hydrogen storage system operators, offered a cautious assessment. He noted that while it is technically feasible to fill Germany’s gas storage facilities to around 77%, achieving this would necessitate a filling rate “that has not been observed even once in the past three weeks.” Heinermann projected that if the current trend persists, the fill level would only reach approximately 65% by November 1.
Officials Maintain Low Risk Assessment
Despite the political and expert concerns, key federal agencies and ministries maintain a reassuring stance. Nadia Affani, spokesperson for the Federal Network Agency, which monitors Germany’s electricity and gas networks, affirmed, “The gas supply in Germany is stable.” She added, “Security of supply is currently guaranteed. Based on the latest information, the Federal Network Agency continues to assess the risk of a gas supply crunch as low.”
Germany’s Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy echoed this assessment. Spokesperson Susanne Ungrad stated that the ministry is “monitoring all developments very closely to ensure security of supply. There are currently no signs of a supply shortage.” Ungrad highlighted that Germany’s energy infrastructure is significantly more robust than in 2022, thanks to strategic investments in LNG terminals, new import routes, and reverse-flow capabilities, reducing the country’s previous near-total dependence on a single importer.
Charlie Grüneberg, spokesperson for the German Gas and Hydrogen Industry association, reinforced this holistic view. “The key factor is whether enough gas can be procured and transported to and through Germany. Supply contracts, storage facilities, pipeline imports and LNG are all interlinked,” he explained. Grüneberg also pointed to existing medium-term contracts, asserting that “Anyone who has contractually secured their gas needs for the winter with a reliable supplier will receive the agreed quantities.”
Rising Prices and Market Dynamics
While officials downplay supply risks, the market is already signaling price increases. Heinermann observed that gas prices on the futures market have risen sharply, from around €46 ($52) per megawatt-hour (MWh) in the second quarter to over €80 per MWh recently. Olaf Geyer from the US consulting firm Arthur D. Little, who monitors the German market, cautioned that while there is no immediate supply problem, “If the winter turns out to be cold or there are disruptions on the import side, prices could rise quickly.”
Grüneberg acknowledged that “reliable price forecasts” are challenging, noting that lower storage levels could drive prices higher “if additional volumes have to be procured on the market.” However, he stressed that “As things stand today, there are no indications of a physical shortage of supply by the end of winter. The futures markets are not signaling this at the moment either.”
The Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy offered insight into the unusual price dynamics, noting that “the prices currently quoted for forward contracts for the winter are only slightly higher than the spot market prices for immediate transactions.” This indicates that “The usual summer-winter spread, which made it economically viable to store gas during the summer months, was therefore not present.” The ministry attributed this disruption to factors like the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which undermined the typical seasonal pattern of buying gas cheaply in summer for sale at higher winter prices.
Incentivizing Future Storage
The absence of the usual summer-winter spread highlights a critical issue for future energy security: the economic viability of filling storage facilities. Olaf Geyer emphasized this point, stating that storage facilities were not fuller because it had not been economically viable. He called for “better incentives for filling storage facilities — and risk management on the part of utilities that looks not only at the purchase price but also at how much actual consumption can deviate from projections.”
Heinermann echoed this sentiment, advocating for effective economic incentives to ensure adequate gas storage. He argued that “In the medium term, Germany needs a reliable market framework that, through incentives, obligations or a combination of both, ensures sufficient storage levels on a long-term basis while preserving as much market-based flexibility as possible.”
While Germany’s diversified supply routes and robust infrastructure offer a buffer against physical shortages, the current low storage levels and rising futures prices suggest that consumers and industries alike may face higher energy costs this winter. The long-term challenge remains establishing a market framework that consistently incentivizes sufficient gas storage, thereby mitigating price volatility and enhancing energy resilience against unforeseen disruptions or colder-than-average winters.
