US President Donald Trump is set to travel to China this week for a pivotal meeting with Xi Jinping, marking the first visit by a US president to the country in nearly a decade. Scheduled from May 13-15, the summit arrives at a crucial juncture for economic ties between the world’s two largest economies, with executives from major American companies like Boeing, Citigroup, and Qualcomm expected to accompany Trump, potentially to finalize significant deals.
The visit will serve as a key test for the delicate trade truce established between Washington and Beijing, a pause in a tit-for-tat tariff war that previously saw duties top 100%. While a temporary agreement was reached after their last face-to-face meeting in South Korea in October, underlying tensions and threats from both sides have persisted.
A Decade of Trade Tensions: From Trump 1.0 to Biden’s Stance
The origins of the trade conflict trace back to Trump’s 2016 election campaign, where he vowed to rebalance trade for the US and repatriate manufacturing jobs. In 2018, he initiated the trade war by announcing tariffs on $250bn (£185bn) of Chinese imports. Concurrently, levies were imposed on other trading partners, including Mexico, Canada, and Europe, accused by Trump of exploiting the US.
Policy researcher Ning Leng from Georgetown University noted the initial shock in Beijing: “It was the first time they dealt with Trump seriously, and they probably did not expect him to go ahead with it.” At the time, China’s economy was heavily reliant on trade with America, with the US being a critical importer of Chinese manufactured goods. This dependence made China’s workers vulnerable to American buyers turning away due to tariffs, exacerbating existing domestic issues like sluggish consumption, high unemployment, and a prolonged property crisis. “It’s harder for one country to withstand a trade war with another that it has trade surplus with,” Ning added.
When Joe Biden assumed the presidency in 2021, the pressure on Beijing continued. His administration maintained Trump’s tariffs, driven by a shared conviction that the US needed to curb China’s growth in strategic sectors like technology. Biden also introduced restrictions on Chinese firms, notably ousting tech giant Huawei from the US over national security concerns and scrutinizing TikTok, leading to the separation of its US operations from its Chinese parent company. Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) were also effectively blocked from the US market through heavy tariffs. Economist Tang Heiwai from the University of Hong Kong observed, “We often think that Trump is tough on China, but there is an argument to say that Biden was even more protectionist than Trump was.”
Trump 2.0 and the Tariff Escalation
Upon returning to office in 2025, Trump intensified his tariff policies. He imposed 20% tariffs on China, citing the influx of the drug fentanyl into the US. On his so-called Liberation Day, a 34% levy was set on Chinese goods, elevating total tariffs on China to among the highest globally. These measures significantly impacted Chinese businesses, leading to goods accumulating in warehouses, while US firms sought alternative supply chains.
Beijing swiftly retaliated with its own duties, targeting US agricultural goods, which affected farmers – a key demographic for Trump. However, Trump’s strategy had not fully accounted for China’s near-monopoly on rare earths, essential for manufacturing a wide range of products from smartphones to fighter jets. Recognizing the risk to key US businesses dependent on these raw materials, a bargaining opportunity emerged.
The October Truce and Lingering Disputes
The meeting between Trump and Xi in October resulted in Beijing suspending its rare earth export controls, a win for the Trump administration. Trump also stated that China agreed to immediately increase purchases of US agricultural goods and other farm products. In exchange, Washington partially dropped tariffs imposed on China related to the flow of fentanyl ingredients. Planned increases to reciprocal tariffs were also paused, and restrictions on the sale of advanced semiconductors to China were lifted in the weeks following the meeting, though this did not extend to the most cutting-edge chips.
Despite this truce, a permanent resolution remains elusive. China’s substantial investment in manufacturing necessitates selling abroad due to weak domestic spending. As Tang Heiwai noted, “It will need the US. There’s no single country as big as them as a consumer market.” Yet, Beijing enters this meeting from a position of growing strength, with export figures hitting record levels due to new global trading partners, reducing its reliance on the US. China has also heavily invested in robotics and efforts to produce its own advanced chips, aiming to lessen dependence on Western firms like Nvidia.
The Trump administration, conversely, is expected to press Beijing for increased purchases of goods from vital US industries, including soybeans and aircraft parts. The visit also coincides with domestic setbacks for Trump’s trade policies; the US Supreme Court recently struck down his Liberation Day tariffs. In response, Trump invoked a separate law to impose a temporary 10% levy on all countries while launching an investigation into China and others for unfair trade practices. Furthermore, a US trade court last week ruled that the latest global tariffs were not justified, potentially paving the way for future legal challenges.
Geopolitical Shadows: The Iran War
Beyond trade, the ongoing Iran war is expected to cast a significant shadow over the Trump-Xi meeting. China, with its vast oil reserves and diversified energy sources, including substantial imports from Russia, has appeared to weather the conflict’s fallout better than many neighbors, despite being Iran’s largest oil buyer. Nevertheless, signs indicate that the protracted conflict is straining the Chinese economy, prompting senior officials to pledge robust measures to safeguard China’s energy security and supply chains. While both Beijing and Washington may be incentivized to seek an end to the conflict, their fundamental differences on Iran will be closely watched as they navigate these complex discussions.
